Engineer Walilah Afkhami, CEO of Kerman Civil Engineering Organization, analyzed foreign trade in a note published in Dunyai Ekhtaz newspaper. This note, which is important to read to know the situation of Iran's trade, follows:
The belated statistics released by Iran Customs regarding the country's foreign trade last year, although it indicates a 10% growth in the value of exports of non-oil goods compared to 2021; However, the increase in the value of imports compared to exports amounting to about 6.5 billion dollars indicates the continuation and increase of the country's foreign trade imbalance. This means that in 2021, the country's external trade balance will be negative by $4.4 billion, and last year this figure fell by almost 50% to $6.5 billion.
The analysis results of Iranian Customs report regarding the country's foreign trade in the past year and its comparison with the previous year and also with the previous 10 years can be a good guide to know the obstacles and country's foreign trade problems and if necessary to modify the upstream policies and associated implementation methods. The bitter reality that emerges clearly from this analysis is the decline in the value of the average price of each ton of the country's export goods from $520 in 2012 to $435 in 2022; That is, a decline of about 17% in 11 years, and with it an increase in the price of goods imported into the country from an average figure of 1354 dollars per ton of goods to 1604 dollars in 2022 and an increase of about 17%. In other words, over time we have sold the country's export goods cheaper and imported the goods we need more expensive.
Of course, the possibility that some goods, similar to basic goods affected by international interactions and, for example, the war between Russia and Ukraine, will have a short-term price increase, which can naturally have a small effect on other sectors as well; But the sum of these continuous losses caused by selling low and buying high is an expense which has been taken out of the pocket of the nation, and the brokers and intermediaries, the domestic and foreign banking networks and the money changers , took advantage of it. In such a situation, the more the volume of foreign trade of the country increases, the less the country will gain from it compared to the foreign trade of other countries.
Examination of the various dimensions of these losses and losses in terms of quantity and quality in foreign trade indicates the involvement of the maximum share of the country's foreign policy and how to communicate with the efficient countries in the economy and international trade, and due to the establishment, maintenance and increase of numerous sanctions and restrictions which, especially in the transfer of money for transactions of goods with foreign countries, oblige traders and traders remaining in the field of foreign trade activity to pay costs that would not exist under normal conditions and without sanctions, and finally, its availability in different forms. It weighs heavily on the shoulders of the people of the nation.
The problem of the country's foreign trade here is that the competent planners and executive organs of Al-Qaeda's economy must know and be aware that if in the country's foreign trade, we will have to pay unusual and heavy costs; If the limited countries that trade with Iran buy Iranian goods at low prices and sell their goods to us at a higher price than the international conventional price, or due to the imposition of sanctions-related costs, their goods reach us at a higher price than the common international custom price; If the country's export destinations are continuously reduced, such that the 66% share of the total value of the country's non-oil exports to the top five countries that buy Iran's export goods in 2013 has reaches more than 75% in 2022; If the countries that buy crude oil and other relevant products are slow to pay the country's claims on time and block it for years and keep it with them; If we face many obstacles, problems and restrictions in the transportation of export goods from the country to their respective destinations, which makes it difficult to compete on the transportation price, or if the cost higher than the actual price is removed from the pocket of the nation in another way, and dozens if not more of the kind. It should not be thought of simply as the inability of the officials concerned, which of course can be discussed in its place; Sanctions are the cause of all subsequent problems. It is the sanctions that eliminate businessmen and businessmen who are required to operate in the legal and recognized international environment, suppress transparency and regulate the black market; It is the sanctions that destroy the competitive environment for investors and force those who are interested in allocating the financial resources they have in production to transfer them and use them in non-productive sectors; It is the sanctions that accelerate the migration of educated and specialized forces, as well as managerial indiscretions; There are sanctions which, in addition to reducing the rate of growth of investments, cause inflation and cause unemployment and despair.
If you don't believe in the adverse effects of sanctions on the country's economy, take a look at Iranian customs reports to see that over the past decade, the country's largest volume of foreign trade, as well that the first positive foreign trade balance after the revolution, and the widest variety of non-oil export destinations related to It has been some time since the JCPOA where the de-escalation of foreign policy and the establishment of good relations with other other countries to suspend economic sanctions have been at the top of the government's priority agenda.
The outlook for the current year cannot be separated from this analysis. If the country's foreign policy continues to turn on the same footing as before and the sanctions continue, the improvement of foreign relations with several neighboring countries is valuable and significant; But it will not be able to have a significant impact on the country's foreign trade. Realism in the field of domestic issues and attention to the wishes of the majority of people in social areas, as well as improving relations with influential countries, will be an acceptable prospect.
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